Post by NFA on Jan 25, 2023 21:20:24 GMT 8
The Australian energy crisis will deteriorate when more coal power stations close but the general public has not been told the truth of the matter. This situation has been addressed by the Energy Realists of Australia in a series of briefing notes circulated to 800+ state and federal members and a long list of journalists.
The notes contain essential information and analysis that has not been provided by official sources or the mainstream media.
The list below has been enhanced to include a concise statement of the message in each note.
ESSENTIAL INFORMATION
www.flickerpower.com/images/INFORMATION_PACK.pdf
WEBSITE (a work in progress)
www.flickerpower.com/index.php
BRIEFING NOTES
www.flickerpower.com/images/INFORMATION_PACK.pdf
WEBSITE (a work in progress)
www.flickerpower.com/index.php
BRIEFING NOTES
When muddle-headed wombats do energy policy…Beware!
Wind droughts occur frequently across the whole of SE Australia when high pressure systems linger. These droughts ensure that wind and solar power will not replace conventional power any time soon.
20.2 www.flickerpower.com/index.php/search/categories/renewables/20-2-four-icebergs-in-the-path-of-renewables-titanic
Four features of the Australian situation make the RE transition practically impossible with existing technology. These are wind droughts, the need for continuous input to the grid, our island status (no extension cords) and lack of large-scale storage.
The RE transition is limited by the lowest point of wind and solar generation on low-wind nights (effectively zero), not the installed capacity, the high points or the average.
20.3 www.flickerpower.com/index.php/search/categories/renewables/21-3-the-island-effect
Australia, being an island, is seriously disadvantaged in attempting to achieve ambitious renewable energy targets because we can’t run extension cords to other countries to obtain power when we are short.
20.4 www.flickerpower.com/index.php/search/categories/wind-power/20-4-this-is-a-warning-to-all-leaders
A survey of the dangers of relying on the wind to power a modern economy.
20.5 www.flickerpower.com/index.php/search/categories/renewables/20-5-lessons-from-the-californian-blackouts
California has run down its coal, gas and nuclear capacity and now depends on power from other states during periods of maximum demand. As the other states run down their conventional power, Californians are now being subjected to “demand management.”
2021.1 www.flickerpower.com/index.php/search/categories/renewables/21-1-a-review-of-the-csiro-gencost-study-2018
This version of the study apparently did not include the cost of firming intermittent energy. This is supposed to be treated in the 2020 version of the study.
Recommendation. Turn to modern HELE Efficiency Low Emission plant because the power is cheaper than energy produced by firmed windfarms. Whilst the electrical energy generated by unfirmed windfarms is less expensive than coal, unfirmed wind is not an option unless blackouts are accepted as routine.
21.2 www.flickerpower.com/index.php/search/categories/renewables/21-2-environment-destruction-the-dark-side-to-renewable-energy
The supply chains of the wind and solar industry leave footprints of human and environmental disaster through ten phases from exploration and mining to the disposal of toxic wastes at the end of the road. Climate control strategies are like chemotherapy for the planet but the treatment is damaging people and the planet while extra CO2 is greening it.
21.3 www.flickerpower.com/index.php/search/categories/global-warming/21-03-australia-is-probably-a-carbon-sink
Taking account of our forests and grasslands, calculations suggest that we are absorbing more CO2 that we are emitting. This means that we are doing better than net zero already.
21.4 www.flickerpower.com/index.php/search/categories/wind-power/21-4-firming-wind-farms-with-batteries
Firming wind power with batteries?
The main kinds of firming power are gas, pumped hydro and battery storage.
Gas is not acceptable to Greens and pumped hydro will not be available for years.
This study explains that the cost of battery storage required to firm up the power supply from a typical wind farm is astronomical.
Battery storage can’t be expected to provide feasible and affordable firming power to support the wind industry.
21.5 www.flickerpower.com/index.php/search/categories/wind-power/21-5-firming-wind-farms-with-pumped-hydro
Firming wind power with pumped hydro.
The main kinds of firming power are gas, pumped hydro and battery storage.
Gas is not acceptable to Greens and batteries are too expensive (note 20.4)
Due to the cost and the technical issues that arise with pumped hydro, modern HELE USC coal fired plants are economically and technically superior solutions to the supply of power to replace the old plants as they close.
21.6 www.flickerpower.com/index.php/search/categories/wind-power/21-6-short-term-fluctuations-in-the-supply-of-wind-power
Frequent outages of coal-fired turbines would be regarded as a serious scandal and receive headline treatment in the media but large and rapid falls in the wind power supply pass without comment.
21.7 www.flickerpower.com/index.php/search/categories/renewables/21-7-intermittent-solar-and-wind-power-can-displace-coal-but-cannot-replace-it
Increasing the penetration of unreliable energy from the wind and the sun into the electricity supply can make coal power stations uneconomic but cannot replace them.
The rate of exit from coal is not accelerated by increasing penetration on good days, it is limited by the lowest level of output on nights with little or no wind, as a convoy travels at the speed of the slowest vessel, the water penetrates the levee at the lowest point, a chain is only as strong as the weakest link and stock get out of the yard through gaps even if the rest of the fence is built to the sky.
As long as periods with effectively zero solar and wind power persist, 100% backup from conventional power will still be required, assuming that we want security of supply. This means that we will have to keep burning coal until nuclear power is on deck.
21.8 www.flickerpower.com/index.php/search/categories/renewables/21-8-challenging-the-gencost-report-on-the-cost-of-intermittent-energy-100-re-with-firming-could-cost-over-400-per-mwhour
A thorough study of the cost of power in the NEM refutes the GenCost claim that wind and solar power are cheaper than coal.
It is essential to fully cost the firming (the backup) that has to be provided to cover the intermittent output of wind and solar facilities.
There is no such thing as firming from intermittent providers and no amount of additional RE capacity will help.
21.9 www.flickerpower.com/index.php/search/categories/technology/21-9-green-hydrogen
Government decisions to allocate substantial funds to “hydrogen hubs” are based on wishful thinking among green advisors in the bureaucracy.
Grants for developing green hydrogen should be subjected to cost-benefit analysis over short to medium terms.
When all the green hydrogen projects around the world come on stream there will be a glut on the market!
21.10 www.flickerpower.com/index.php/search/categories/solar-power/21-10-the-capital-costs-of-firming-solar-farms-with-gas-turbines
The paper supporting this note demonstrates the disastrous economic and other outcomes of the NSW Electricity Roadmap.
21.11 www.flickerpower.com/index.php/search/categories/renewables/21-11-the-downside-of-electric-vehicles
The misplaced enthusiasm for electric vehicles matches the hype for green hydrogen.
The list of problems is so long that you need to read the note to appreciate them. Consider the social injustice of subsidies for well-off people who can afford evs, the human rights of workers in the supply chain, the danger of fast-moving and soundless missiles on the road, the fire hazard, the volume of minerals and mining required, the extra demand for power (which will be more expensive, thus undermining the economy of driving evs), the need to drive almost 100,000km to balance the extra CO2 generated in building the ev, the charging infrastructure required, the limited life of the battery compared with conventional vehicles, the limitations of evs during emergencies - fires, floods, power blackouts.
21.12 www.flickerpower.com/index.php/search/categories/renewables/21-12-the-capacity-of-big-batteries
False and misleading claims about the firming capacity of so-called “big batteries” must cease to enable a sensible debate about the future of the power supply.
For a start, journalists who rate the capacity of batteries in MW instead of MWhrs should be promptly escorted from the building, with their personal effects thrown into the street after them.
21.13 www.flickerpower.com/index.php/search/categories/academia/21-13-the-quality-of-science-teaching-in-the-schools
Many cohorts of school students have been subjected to green propaganda by activist teachers and lately by the common curriculum. The level of public debate cannot be expected to improve until this is corrected by a coast to coast parents’ revolt to save our schools.
21.14 www.flickerpower.com/index.php/search/categories/renewables/21-14-the-false-claims-about-net-zero-progress-overseas
Australia has substantially reduced emissions while many nations have shamelessly greenwashed their credentials.
This is most unfair. We should get some credit for doubling or tripling the price of power, trashing the property rights of farmers, bringing the grid to the point of collapse and funding a myriad of new government and quasi-government agencies dedicated to the task of increasing the cost of doing business.
Who would dare to calculate the deadweight cost of merely counting the emissions?
21.15 www.flickerpower.com/index.php/search/categories/renewables/21-15-the-impossible-task-of-the-green-energy-transition-with-existing-technology
The Energy Security Board was supposed to suggest market reforms to expedite the energy transition but they contemplated a continuing role for gas and coal so they were sent to the naughty corner.
The responsible bodies in the various states are now stuck with the problem and soon they will have to find a way to keep the coal fires burning. This will be interesting to watch.
21.16 www.flickerpower.com/index.php/search/categories/renewables/21-16-the-failure-of-re-in-europe
The energy crisis in Europe should be well-known by now but the MSM has not kept people up to date. When this note was written the crisis was in plain view, long before the war in Ukraine aggravated the situation.
The root of the problem, as for Australia, is the wind droughts that they call “Dunkelflautes”which can persist for many weeks every year. Like Australia, the gravity of the threat only emerged when conventional power ran down to a critical point which they have reached and we will encounter when another power station or two closes.
Here is a mystery, how come they were surprised by Dunkelflautes when European sailors must have known about low wind periods for centuries when they travelled by sail? Maritime museums must be full of ships logs with descriptions of calm weather.
21.17 www.flickerpower.com/index.php/search/categories/general/21-17-fake-climate-alarms
Steven Koonin is a highly decorated climate scientist. Previously he was an Under Secretary in President Obamas Energy Office. He read the 4000 pages of scientific papers in the recent IPCC Assessment Report and he found that the papers did not support any of the alarms that are claimed in the Summary for Policymakes. Those claims are inflated in press statements by UN officials and journalists.
21.18 www.flickerpower.com/index.php/search/categories/general/21-18-the-cost-of-green-hydrogen
So what is the point of generating green hydrogen that has to be converted back to electricity to drive things like electric cars, aeroplanes and road trains?
Welcome to Fantasyland! All the plans for green hydrogen at present are hopes and dreams that depend on major technological advances and practically unlimited supplies of very cheap wind and solar power.
21.19 www.flickerpower.com/index.php/search/categories/general/21-19-wind-fails-in-south-australia
In the course of a year SA is a net exporter of power, thanks to a good supply of gas, but whenever the wind low SA imports power (and also burns gas).
High penetration of wind and solar for much some of the time, even most of the time, does not compensate for next to no wind solar some of the time. See notes 20.1, 20.2 and 21.7 (wind and solar can DISPLACE coal but not REPLACE it.)
21.20 www.flickerpower.com/index.php/search/categories/general/21-20-environmental-issues-with-mining-resources-for-renewable-energy
The International Energy Agency calculated that the needs for “energy transition minerals” such as lithium, graphite, nickel and rare-earth metals would rise by 4,200%, 2,500%, 1,900% and 700%, respectively, by 2040.
Believe it when you see it!
Notes 22.1 to 22.6 NOT ON THE SITE AT THIS STAGE
22.1 Environmental damage caused by wind and solar construction.
Serious environmental issues arise at ten stages of wind and solar production, from mining raw materials to the disposal of turbines, batteries and solar panels at the end of their working lives.
Environmental impact is the dirty secret of the wind and solar industry and when environmentalists realise what is happening many will not tolerate the damage.
22.2 Human rights and the supply chain
More investigation of the involvement of children and forced labour in RE supply chains is urgently required.
22.3 The real cost of firming wind and solar power. Repeating the findings reported in note 21.8.
The estimate for Option 6, 100%RE, fully firmed, is in the order of $400-$420 per MWhr compared with the cost at the time (Option 1) was less than $80 per MWhr.
22.4 Mark Mills on the geopolitics of energy and the role of China in vital supply chains.
Mark Mills at the Manhattan Institute has been sending warning signals for years that the push for intermittent energy in the west could have drastic geopolitical implicatioins. Here he explains how the conflict in the Ukraine has brought the consequences upon us ahead of schedule.
www.city-journal.org/ukraine-war-and-the-new-shale-revolution
22.5 Warning to politicians re public opinion on the cost of net zero COST MATTERS!
Activists and media pundits who demand more action are out of step with the community.
61% of Australians agree the federal government should be more focused on defending Australia’s security than pursuing a net zero emissions target.
72% of Australians want affordable energy bills and reliability to be at the core of Australia’s energy policy – not net zero.
92% of Australians are unwilling to pay above $100 per year for net zero policies
cl.s7.exct.net/?qs=3a08705a0a303819877710ea6645c1f0756f0dc868a7b44a83e5b47c875e9f31b725d5751ddf73bd22f594f02e5bb8db9c92c3a58d320e3d
22.6 Is this the energy crisis that we had to have? A wake-up call after the Federal election in 2022.
Due to wind droughts the transition from coal to wind and solar power can’t happen until we have nuclear power. Despite persistent warnings from the Energy Realists that were sent to all sitting MPs in the country and to many journalists, the major parties all pressed on with aggressive policies to eliminate coal. All must share the responsibility for the impending crisis.
Moreover, the press corps neglected to inform the general public about the issues and voters sleep-walked into the last election without understanding the energy policy issues at stake.
To promote wind literacy it is recommended that regular news and weather bulletins on radio and TV report the amount of power that is being provided by the wind at the time.
22.7 www.flickerpower.com/index.php/search/categories/general/22-7-the-magic-pudding-of-energy-storage
We have effectively no grid-scale storage and there is no prospect of any in the foreseeable future. See note 21.12.
Essential Information
Two five-minute videos
Mark Mills explains why the green energy transition is not happening. Trillions of dollars of expenditure have hardly moved the needle to green worldwide energy use.
The limit of wind and solar power. Consider the amount of rocks that have to be processed in energy-intensive processes to build an electric vehicle!
Two pieces from The Spectator.
On wind droughts and lack of storage in Australia. When the next coal power station closes, every wind drought will threaten the power supply and prolonged wind droughts will be potentially catastrophic.
spectator.com.au/2022/07/energy-policy-where-parallel-universes-are-set-to-collide/
The vital importance of “wind literacy.” Wind droughts have been recognized in Australia for a long time but defective advice (neglecting the droughts) resulted in the the worst policy blunder in our history. This is connecting subsidised and mandated intermittent wind and solar power to the grid.
www.spectator.com.au/2022/11/the-voice-of-energy-realism/
The Biggest Lie.
The environmental dark side of wind and solar power. Bill Stinson’s survey of the worldwide environmental footprint from mining to disposal of junk and toxic waste.
www.flickerpower.com/images/Environment-Destruction-The-Dark-Side-of-Renewable-Energy-1.pdf
Short films of environmental destruction in Queensland.
Saving the planet?
Upper Burdekin
Kaban
Chalumbin
Wind and solar are not cheap when you count the cost of firming.
Think about nuclear power.
WEBSITE
www.flickerpower.com/index.php
Rafe Champion
www.the-rathouse.com
Warning!
Wind watching can be time-consuming and habit-forming.
Watch responsibly.