Post by NFA on Nov 27, 2022 12:26:18 GMT 8
What I Expect In Ukraine
Posted on 26 November 2022 by E.M.Smith
Posted on 26 November 2022 by E.M.Smith
This is how I expect things to unfold in the NATO proxy war using Ukraine against Russia; with some bits about why I think this way.
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NATO & The US will fume about it, and a few hundred $Billion more will go missing into slush funds nominally to “do something about it”; but nothing will be done.
You see, NATO has vowed to fight Russia “To the last Ukrainian!”; and they are already close to that point now due to 6 figure Ukrainian deaths (not “casualties” but dead with who knows how many injured and broken). After a full on Russian Army Attack, there will be no men of fighting age left in Rump Ukraine to do the fighting…
I figure that point will come about March.
Note: Russia has a “Dead Hand” system that will fire all their nuclear weapons if it is not communicated with regularly. All automated “death for everyone”. An actual Doomsday Device. It is not possible to have a NATO First Use that wins, nor is it possible to have a “decapitation attack” on Moscow. Well, you could do it; it would just mean a global nuclear destruction of The West…
Also note: I’ve been watching Russian Youtube Videos from some random folks doing walks around various cities of Russia. They are clean. Stores are full of everything (even banned western goods). Folks are out walking in furs, driving cars, and having a full night life (Moscow Christmas decorations are the best, but St. Petersburg is pretty good too). Their cities are places I’d be willing to live. Unlike San Francisco or NYC hell holes of dirt, corruption and crime. Oh, and lights are on everywhere, even at midnight. Unlike German and other European cities that are going dark at night due to not enough power. Russians are mostly in favor of the war and love Putin. Their major complaint is that he moved too slowly and didn’t use enough force up front.
In Conclusion
It will not be possible to “cut a deal” with Putin. He has several decades of broken promises from The West. You can not negotiate nor make deals with pathological liars, and Putin knows this. There is no longer any negotiated ending. Just capitulation or destruction. That choice left the building with the abandonment of the Minsk Accords and the UK putting any deal off the table and the EU putting sanctions on.
The “sanctions” will not “do it”. They are only harming the EU & USA. They were stupid from the start since Russia & China make anything they need. The West doesn’t make anything they are critically dependent upon. We can’t live without their oil, uranium, rare earth minerals, lithium, pharmaceuticals, electronic gadgets and more. Making semiconductors is not very hard as long as you are one generation or more back. Military gear (and most other gear too) uses older era chips that they both can make just fine, thanks. It is mostly gamers and some research computers that want the latest and fastest microchips.
Sidebar on Missile Chips:
Some decades back, the Spousal Uncle was running a Cruise Missile Factory in the Los Angeles area. We visited and talked. He was having a devil of a time getting the parts he needed. In particular 16 K bit RAM chips. You see, at that time, Silicon Valley had moved on to 32 K, then 64 K chips and were working on 128 K. Almost nobody was making 16K chips anymore, certainly not Mil Spec.
His missiles had been acceptance tested and type certified with just those 16K chips. He was not allowed to just swap in a newer generation of tech.
Moral of story? Military Gear does not NEED and in fact often is not allowed to even use newer better more modern semiconductor chips. The WEFies & Eurocrats (having never had a real job in their life) don’t know things like this; thus they make crap decisions like “embargo modern chips”. It may piss off some gamer in Moscow, but will do nothing to pretty much anything else in Russia.
So what can be done?
Not Much. All we can really do is sit back and admire what Russia does, and how lousy our “leadership” has been with their bluster, arrogance, and ignorance. Not a decent chess player among them, and nobody who knows how economies or anything industrial really works.
Russia is in the drivers seat. They do not care about anything we say, and have not cared about anything we did. They know The West is corrupt, lies, will not hold to agreements, has no moral center, and is largely incompetent. (Just one look at any of Biden, Justin, or Ursula will tell them that…). They’ve taken everything thrown at them and not even noticed.
Since a “deal” can not be made, and if it were made it could not be trusted: no deal will happen.
Since all of the money and hardware thrown at them as accomplished nothing but getting more Ukrainians killed, Russia has nothing to fear from more of the same (besides, to the extent NATO gear gets destroyed, it stops being a threat to Russia… so from their POV “great deal!”.)
The only potential military options would be full on NATO engagement (where nobody in NATO is mobilized at present and most of them are now out of ammo and “spares”) or a Nuclear First Strike (that would be NATO Suicide as Russia has way more nukes and delivery systems and is already deployed). So no military solution is available. Certainly not before the Russian Offensive is almost over in February.
With politics / negotiations off the table due to serial lying and NATO military doomed to fail; Russia knows that the only thing to do is simply dominate and win. So that is what it will do. And it will do it in winter when cold and snow are on their side.
If you live in the USA: Stock up on food and fuel and anything you are likely to need as prices will only be going higher. Move out of $US and into something more stable. Land and Houses ought to be getting cheap in a few weeks to months as that market halts on high interest rates. Metals and more (like, oh, fabricated metals like brass & lead…) or even silver & gold.
If you live in the EU: Expect to have fuel and food shortages, loss of electricity for hours to days, and only sporadic heating at modest low levels. Oh, and figure out how to feed, house, and care for a few Million Ukrainian Refugees. All while your governments decay into chaos and your industries are shutting down due to energy costs and non-profitability. It’s going to be a bumpy ride.
Welcome to “The Great Reset”. But only happening in NATO countries and not globally. Sorry Globalists; most of the world isn’t buying your insanity. Russia, China, Muslim World, India – to name just a few… (Brasil TBD. The GEBs installed Lula – a known criminal and pawn – and last I checked the Brazilian people were in the streets. So watch that space.) But the BRICS may be turning into the BRICSS+ as Brasil, Russia, India, China, South Africa add on Saudi and a dozen others. All willing to give the Middle Finger to the USA & EU. Once you blow your credibility and show you can not be trusted, folks tend to leave your monetary and trade systems. “Good luck with that”…
Sidebar On Bridges
The Duran is a great place for analysis. Alexander Mercouris has great connections inside the Eastern European block and Russia and is mostly right on what’s going on there. I think one thing he’s said is not quite correct though. It is the bridges over the Dnieper River.
You see, NATO has vowed to fight Russia “To the last Ukrainian!”; and they are already close to that point now due to 6 figure Ukrainian deaths (not “casualties” but dead with who knows how many injured and broken). After a full on Russian Army Attack, there will be no men of fighting age left in Rump Ukraine to do the fighting…
I figure that point will come about March.
Note: Russia has a “Dead Hand” system that will fire all their nuclear weapons if it is not communicated with regularly. All automated “death for everyone”. An actual Doomsday Device. It is not possible to have a NATO First Use that wins, nor is it possible to have a “decapitation attack” on Moscow. Well, you could do it; it would just mean a global nuclear destruction of The West…
Also note: I’ve been watching Russian Youtube Videos from some random folks doing walks around various cities of Russia. They are clean. Stores are full of everything (even banned western goods). Folks are out walking in furs, driving cars, and having a full night life (Moscow Christmas decorations are the best, but St. Petersburg is pretty good too). Their cities are places I’d be willing to live. Unlike San Francisco or NYC hell holes of dirt, corruption and crime. Oh, and lights are on everywhere, even at midnight. Unlike German and other European cities that are going dark at night due to not enough power. Russians are mostly in favor of the war and love Putin. Their major complaint is that he moved too slowly and didn’t use enough force up front.
In Conclusion
It will not be possible to “cut a deal” with Putin. He has several decades of broken promises from The West. You can not negotiate nor make deals with pathological liars, and Putin knows this. There is no longer any negotiated ending. Just capitulation or destruction. That choice left the building with the abandonment of the Minsk Accords and the UK putting any deal off the table and the EU putting sanctions on.
The “sanctions” will not “do it”. They are only harming the EU & USA. They were stupid from the start since Russia & China make anything they need. The West doesn’t make anything they are critically dependent upon. We can’t live without their oil, uranium, rare earth minerals, lithium, pharmaceuticals, electronic gadgets and more. Making semiconductors is not very hard as long as you are one generation or more back. Military gear (and most other gear too) uses older era chips that they both can make just fine, thanks. It is mostly gamers and some research computers that want the latest and fastest microchips.
Sidebar on Missile Chips:
Some decades back, the Spousal Uncle was running a Cruise Missile Factory in the Los Angeles area. We visited and talked. He was having a devil of a time getting the parts he needed. In particular 16 K bit RAM chips. You see, at that time, Silicon Valley had moved on to 32 K, then 64 K chips and were working on 128 K. Almost nobody was making 16K chips anymore, certainly not Mil Spec.
His missiles had been acceptance tested and type certified with just those 16K chips. He was not allowed to just swap in a newer generation of tech.
Moral of story? Military Gear does not NEED and in fact often is not allowed to even use newer better more modern semiconductor chips. The WEFies & Eurocrats (having never had a real job in their life) don’t know things like this; thus they make crap decisions like “embargo modern chips”. It may piss off some gamer in Moscow, but will do nothing to pretty much anything else in Russia.
So what can be done?
Not Much. All we can really do is sit back and admire what Russia does, and how lousy our “leadership” has been with their bluster, arrogance, and ignorance. Not a decent chess player among them, and nobody who knows how economies or anything industrial really works.
Russia is in the drivers seat. They do not care about anything we say, and have not cared about anything we did. They know The West is corrupt, lies, will not hold to agreements, has no moral center, and is largely incompetent. (Just one look at any of Biden, Justin, or Ursula will tell them that…). They’ve taken everything thrown at them and not even noticed.
Since a “deal” can not be made, and if it were made it could not be trusted: no deal will happen.
Since all of the money and hardware thrown at them as accomplished nothing but getting more Ukrainians killed, Russia has nothing to fear from more of the same (besides, to the extent NATO gear gets destroyed, it stops being a threat to Russia… so from their POV “great deal!”.)
The only potential military options would be full on NATO engagement (where nobody in NATO is mobilized at present and most of them are now out of ammo and “spares”) or a Nuclear First Strike (that would be NATO Suicide as Russia has way more nukes and delivery systems and is already deployed). So no military solution is available. Certainly not before the Russian Offensive is almost over in February.
With politics / negotiations off the table due to serial lying and NATO military doomed to fail; Russia knows that the only thing to do is simply dominate and win. So that is what it will do. And it will do it in winter when cold and snow are on their side.
If you live in the USA: Stock up on food and fuel and anything you are likely to need as prices will only be going higher. Move out of $US and into something more stable. Land and Houses ought to be getting cheap in a few weeks to months as that market halts on high interest rates. Metals and more (like, oh, fabricated metals like brass & lead…) or even silver & gold.
If you live in the EU: Expect to have fuel and food shortages, loss of electricity for hours to days, and only sporadic heating at modest low levels. Oh, and figure out how to feed, house, and care for a few Million Ukrainian Refugees. All while your governments decay into chaos and your industries are shutting down due to energy costs and non-profitability. It’s going to be a bumpy ride.
Welcome to “The Great Reset”. But only happening in NATO countries and not globally. Sorry Globalists; most of the world isn’t buying your insanity. Russia, China, Muslim World, India – to name just a few… (Brasil TBD. The GEBs installed Lula – a known criminal and pawn – and last I checked the Brazilian people were in the streets. So watch that space.) But the BRICS may be turning into the BRICSS+ as Brasil, Russia, India, China, South Africa add on Saudi and a dozen others. All willing to give the Middle Finger to the USA & EU. Once you blow your credibility and show you can not be trusted, folks tend to leave your monetary and trade systems. “Good luck with that”…
Sidebar On Bridges
The Duran is a great place for analysis. Alexander Mercouris has great connections inside the Eastern European block and Russia and is mostly right on what’s going on there. I think one thing he’s said is not quite correct though. It is the bridges over the Dnieper River.